There are companies I would like to own. And then there are companies I would like to own—but not at any price.
Anthropic may soon become one of the most interesting examples of the second category. The company behind Claude has emerged as one of the most formidable players in artificial intelligence. Its growth has been extraordinary, its technology is competing at the frontier, and enterprise adoption has accelerated rapidly.
So if Anthropic goes public, should I buy the stock? My answer is: Yes. I want to own Anthropic. But probably not on IPO day. In fact, I may deliberately wait approximately six months after the IPO before buying a single share. Here is why.
First, You Have to Understand Dario Amodei
Before talking about valuation, revenue, or IPO strategy, investors need to understand the person at the center of this story. Dario Amodei is not simply the CEO of another AI startup. He is one of the relatively few people who has played an important role on both sides of today’s frontier AI race.
Before co-founding Anthropic, Amodei spent roughly five years at OpenAI and served as VP of Research, helping shape research direction during the GPT-2 and GPT-3 era. In 2021, Dario and Daniela Amodei, along with several other former OpenAI researchers, founded Anthropic.
One of the people deeply involved in the early development of technology that helped establish OpenAI later went on to build one of OpenAI’s most serious competitors. Neither company is the work of one individual, but I think it is fair to say that Dario Amodei’s fingerprints are unusually visible on both sides of this competition.
Anthropic’s Growth Is Almost Difficult to Believe
Anthropic is growing at a speed that would look absurd for almost any traditional company. Recent reporting has put its annualized revenue run rate at levels that have risen dramatically in a short period. Those numbers create a dangerous temptation: when revenue is growing this quickly, almost any valuation can temporarily look reasonable.
And that brings us to the number everyone will be talking about: $2 trillion. Recent reports have discussed the possibility of Anthropic pursuing a valuation around that level in connection with a potential public offering.
Is Anthropic a Great Company at the Wrong Price?
A $2 trillion valuation is enormous even for a company growing as rapidly as Anthropic. Using a roughly $65 billion annualized revenue figure as a reference point, $2 trillion represents approximately 31 times annualized revenue. That’s not earnings. That’s revenue.
A company can justify an extraordinary revenue multiple if growth remains extraordinary for long enough. But the enormous variable is: How long can this growth continue?
CAGR Can Make You Rich—and Make You Stupid
Investors love exponential growth. I do too. The problem is that we often look at an extraordinary growth rate and unconsciously extend it far into the future. No company can maintain hypergrowth forever. Competition becomes stronger, customers become harder to acquire, pricing changes, margins matter, capital expenditures matter, and AI computing infrastructure can be extraordinarily expensive.
So I don’t ask, “Is Anthropic growing fast?” Obviously it is. I ask: “When does the growth curve begin to bend?” If Anthropic can continue compounding revenue at an exceptional rate through 2028, 2029 and into 2030, today’s seemingly outrageous valuation could eventually look surprisingly reasonable. If growth slows much sooner, the opposite can happen.
The $2 Trillion Question
Suppose Anthropic reaches approximately $190–200 billion in annual revenue around 2028, as some projections have suggested. A $2 trillion valuation against $200 billion in revenue is approximately 10 times revenue. Still expensive, but for a dominant technology company with strong growth and enormous strategic importance, no longer completely crazy.
This is why Anthropic is such an unusual investment problem. I can simultaneously believe that Anthropic may be extremely expensive today and may eventually grow into that valuation.
Why I Would Not Buy Anthropic on IPO Day
Imagine the headlines: “ANTHROPIC GOES PUBLIC.” Institutional investors want shares. Retail investors want shares. Financial television talks about it all day. Social media explodes. That is precisely when I don’t want to make an emotional investment decision.
There can be tremendous demand for a limited number of publicly tradable shares. Early employees, founders and private investors may be subject to restrictions on when they can sell. The exact lock-up structure will depend on Anthropic’s eventual offering documents.
My Six-Month Rule
If Anthropic goes public, my personal plan would be simple: Watch first. Buy later. I would probably wait approximately six months—not because six months is magical and not because I assume its lock-up will be exactly six months.
I want to see the first public earnings reports, updated revenue growth, margins, cash consumption and capital requirements. Critically, I want to see how the stock behaves as restrictions on early shareholders eventually expire and more shares potentially become available for sale. I would rather miss the first 20% of a rally than blindly chase an IPO and discover that I bought into temporary scarcity and excitement.
What Would Make Me Buy?
Six months later, I would ask: Is revenue still growing exceptionally? Is Claude gaining enterprise adoption? Is Anthropic maintaining its technological position against OpenAI and Google? Are AI economics improving? Is management financially disciplined? And most importantly: What valuation am I paying relative to the company’s new growth rate?
I don’t need Anthropic to be cheap. Companies this good rarely are. I need the price to make sense relative to what I believe the company can become.
Could Anthropic Become a $4 Trillion Company?
If Anthropic were eventually available around a $1–2 trillion valuation after the IPO market settles, and if growth remained extraordinary, I could imagine a scenario in which the company becomes worth several trillion dollars by 2030. Could that mean a 2x, 3x, or even 4x return under an exceptionally strong scenario? I think it is possible.
But I would never call that guaranteed or “safe.” Revenue must continue growing, enterprise customers must stay, technology leadership must remain competitive, AI economics must improve, compute costs must remain manageable, and capital requirements cannot overwhelm shareholder returns.
What Would Make Me Walk Away?
If IPO enthusiasm pushes Anthropic far beyond a $2 trillion valuation while revenue growth is already decelerating, I wait. If the stock doubles immediately simply because everyone wants AI exposure, I wait. If valuation expands faster than the underlying business, I wait.
One of the hardest lessons in investing is learning that you do not have to own everything you admire. Sometimes the best investment decision is doing nothing.
The Dario Factor
Still, Dario Amodei is one reason Anthropic would remain high on my watchlist. He saw frontier AI develop from inside OpenAI, participated in the GPT-2 and GPT-3 era, then helped build a new organization around a different vision. Within only a few years, that organization became one of the most important AI companies in the world.
It is rare to find someone whose career sits near the center of two organizations competing to define the same technological revolution. That doesn’t guarantee Anthropic’s success, but I would be foolish to ignore it.
So, Would I Buy Anthropic?
Yes. I want to own Anthropic if it becomes publicly traded. But I don’t want to own it because everyone is excited on IPO day. I want to own it because the numbers eventually justify the story.
Let the IPO happen. Let Wall Street celebrate. Let the first earnings reports arrive. Let the market discover what Anthropic looks like as a public company. Then I would look again—probably around six months later.
My goal would not be to make money during Anthropic’s first week as a public company. My goal would be to own a piece of what Anthropic might become by 2030. If my thesis is right, an intelligently priced investment after the IPO could plausibly produce a 2x, 3x, or even 4x return. If my thesis is wrong, the downside could also be substantial. That’s exactly why entry price matters.
DrDad’s Bottom Line
Would I own Anthropic? Yes. Would I rush to buy it on IPO day? No. Would I watch it carefully for roughly six months and wait for the initial excitement, valuation discovery, and potential shareholder overhang to become clearer? Absolutely.
Anthropic may become one of the defining companies of the AI era. But I don’t need to be the first shareholder through the door. I would rather be the patient one waiting outside with a calculator.
Disclaimer
This column represents only my personal opinion and investment thesis. It is not financial, investment, tax, or other professional advice, and I am not recommending that anyone buy or sell Anthropic shares if and when the company becomes publicly traded.
All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Future valuations, revenue growth, IPO timing, lock-up terms, and potential returns discussed here are uncertain and may never occur. Every investor should conduct their own research and take full responsibility for their own investment decisions and results.